Commodity Market Structure and Risk Factor Analysis in Bulgaria

Victor Yotzov

doi:10.37075/YB.2021.2.04

Authors

Assoc. Prof. Dr Victor Yotzov Department of Finance, Faculty of Finance and Accounting, UNWE Author

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.37075/YB.2021.2.04

Keywords:

Raw material market, Oil and natural gas market, Early warning system, Probit model

C53, Q31, Q32

Abstract

Analyzing the Bulgarian raw material, crude oil and natural gas markets is an important step in setting up an early warning system (EWS). The Comprehensive Price Index is based on the weighting of imports from the energy and non-energy sectors, including the crude oil sector. The explanatory variables that describe the crisis index are analyzed and predicted by the ordered Probit model. The EWS system developed in this study takes into account the most important measurable variables that affect the raw material market, and based on this understanding, we focus on which variables can represent risk.

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